Bangladesh Faces Elevated Risk from Iran Conflict Due to Energy Imports and Remittances

Bangladesh is significantly more vulnerable to global crises than many developing and emerging economies due to its reliance on energy imports from the Middle East and the substantial number of Bangladeshi workers in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. This heightened risk was highlighted by Jin Liangxiang, Director and Senior Fellow of Middle East Studies at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies (SIIS), during the 'Bengal Delta Conference 2026' in Dhaka. The ongoing Iran conflict, potentially more impactful than the Ukraine war, poses a threat to Bangladesh's energy security through potential supply disruptions and rising international oil prices. Furthermore, economic instability in GCC nations could lead to job losses for Bangladeshi expatriates, impacting the crucial flow of remittances that sustain the country's economy. Jin Liangxiang emphasized that Bangladesh's economy is more fragile compared to major economies like China, the US, or Japan, and its capacity to withstand such global shocks is comparatively weaker. He also noted Iran's significant self-reliance in military capabilities, suggesting a prolonged conflict is possible. Separately, Steve Roach, a Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, discussed the Rohingya crisis, advising Bangladesh to maintain a delicate balance with Myanmar's government and the Arakan Army. Roach expressed skepticism about the longevity of any ceasefire in Myanmar, given the deep mistrust between the military junta and anti-coup forces, which complicates prospects for Rohingya repatriation. He suggested that international focus and resources will likely remain on conflict resolution in Myanmar, potentially overshadowing the Rohingya issue.