Brazil Poll: Lula Leads First Round with 40%, Flávio Bolsonaro at 28%
A new poll by Quaest released on Wednesday, July 15th, indicates President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holds 40% of first-round presidential election intent. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) follows with 28%. Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) is at 4%, Renan Santos (Missão) at 3%, and Romeu Zema (Novo) at 2%, with other pre-candidates collectively at 4%. These figures show a slight increase for Lula from 39% in June, while Flávio Bolsonaro saw a minor decrease from 29%. The survey, commissioned by Genial Investimentos, interviewed 2,004 voters between July 10th and 13th, with a margin of error of two percentage points. Among independent voters, Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro 30% to 15%. The poll also captures the impact of recent political events, including a federal police operation involving Senator Jaques Wagner and a public dispute between Michelle Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro. Notably, 51% of respondents were unaware of Michelle Bolsonaro's video detailing alleged mistreatment by her stepson. The poll also reveals that Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are the most recognized but also the most rejected candidates, with 53% and 57% respectively stating they would not vote for them under any circumstances. In four simulated second-round scenarios against Flávio Bolsonaro, Zema, Caiado, and Santos, Lula consistently leads with 45% of the vote. Regarding Lula's government performance, 48% approve and 47% disapprove, with 36% rating it as "great or good" and another 36% as "bad or terrible."
This poll provides a snapshot of the Brazilian presidential race, highlighting incumbent President Lula's lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. The data suggests a stable, albeit tight, electoral landscape, with both leading candidates facing significant rejection rates, indicating a potentially polarized electorate. The analysis of independent voters is crucial, as this segment could determine the election's outcome. The poll's attempt to quantify the impact of recent family disputes within the Bolsonaro camp on voter perception is noteworthy, suggesting potential internal friction affecting Flávio Bolsonaro's image. As the election cycle progresses, shifts in undecided voters and the effectiveness of campaign strategies in consolidating support or mitigating rejection will be key factors to monitor. The government approval ratings also present a mixed picture, suggesting a divided public opinion on the current administration's performance.
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