Brazilian Gubernatorial Races: Quaest Polls Show Mixed Results Across 10 States

Recent polls conducted by Quaest between July 27th and 30th reveal a varied electoral landscape for the gubernatorial contests in ten Brazilian states. Some incumbents and candidates have established strong leads, while other races remain undecided, characterized by technical ties, a high percentage of undecided voters, and potential for shifts before the election.

A technical tie occurs when the difference between candidates' poll numbers is within the margin of error, considering the combined margins. The states covered by these surveys are Bahia, Ceará, Goiás, Minas Gerais, Pará, Paraná, Pernambuco, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, and São Paulo.

In Bahia, ACM Neto (União) and Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) are in a technical tie for the first round, with 39% and 38% respectively. This tie persists in second-round simulations, where Neto leads slightly. The approval rating for the current governor, Rodrigues, stands at 57%, with 52% believing he deserves re-election. The poll surveyed 1,200 voters from July 23rd to 27th, with a 3% margin of error and 95% confidence level.

Ceará's first-round race is led by Ciro Gomes (PSDB) with 43%, followed by Elmano de Freitas (PT) at 33%. Gomes's lead widens to 13 points in second-round simulations. Analysis suggests Freitas garners support from 'lulistas' and the left, while Gomes appeals to the right and 'bolsonaristas,' also showing strength among independents. The poll included 1,102 voters from July 24th to 28th, with a 3% margin of error.

Goiás shows Daniel Vilela (MDB) leading the first round with 37%, ahead of Marconi Perillo (PSDB) at 21%. Vilela holds the most significant second-round advantage among the surveyed states, leading Perillo by 24 points and Wilder Morais (PL) by 38 points. Vilela's broad appeal across various demographics is noted, alongside the high approval rating of outgoing Governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) at 87%. This survey involved 1,104 voters from July 24th to 28th, with a 3% margin of error.

In Minas Gerais, Cleitinho Azevedo (Republicanos) leads first and second-round scenarios, though his candidacy is not yet confirmed. Alexandre Kalil (PDT) and Patrus Ananias (PT) are also contenders. Without Azevedo, second-round matchups between Mateus Simões (PSD) and Kalil, or Simões and Ananias, show technical ties. The poll surveyed 1,482 voters from July 22nd to 26th, with a 3% margin of error.

Pará's election is described as open, with only 30% of voters having made a definitive choice. Incumbent Governor Hana Ghassan (MDB), identified as the candidate of former Governor Helder Barbalho (MDB), leads in simulated first and second rounds but is in a technical tie with Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos). The poll included 900 voters from July 21st to 25th, with a 3% margin of error.

Sergio Moro (PL) leads the first round in Paraná with 39%, ahead of Requião Filho (PDT) at 18%. Moro also leads second-round simulations against Requião Filho by 19 points. However, 64% of voters remain undecided, and the political environment favors the incumbent governor's group, with 63% believing he should choose his successor. This poll surveyed 1,104 voters from July 21st to 25th, with a 3% margin of error.

In Pernambuco, Raquel Lyra (PSD) leads the first round with 43% against João Campos (PSB) at 37%. However, second-round simulations show a reversal, with Campos leading Lyra 46% to 38% in April.