CITIC Securities: Dividend Assets Poised for Valuation Recovery in H2 2026
CITIC Securities anticipates that dividend assets are likely to enter a valuation repair phase in the second half of 2026. The first half of 2026 was characterized by significant differentiation and volatility across major asset classes, influenced by geopolitical tensions and tightening liquidity. Looking ahead, the report suggests that gold may experience short-term consolidation but possesses long-term structural support. Actively managed equity funds with neutral style portfolios are expected to benefit. Quantitative funds might see an improvement in excess returns, while absolute return 'fixed income+' funds are predicted to be more adaptable in a diverging market. Macro allocation strategies are expected to be less impacted by liquidity fluctuations, and subjective CTA strategies are projected to gain an advantage.
The outlook for dividend assets suggests a potential shift driven by anticipated macroeconomic conditions, including easing liquidity pressures and a resolution of geopolitical uncertainties. This forecast implies a market environment where value-oriented investments may outperform growth-oriented ones, reflecting a potential recalibration of risk premiums. The analysis highlights the resilience of certain strategies, such as 'fixed income+' and CTA, in navigating market volatility, indicating a broader trend towards diversified and adaptive investment approaches. Investors may consider how evolving global dynamics and technological advancements, particularly in AI, could influence these asset class performances and risk profiles over the next decade.
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