CITIC Securities: Rare Earths Poised for Value Reassessment Amid Supply, Demand, and Tech Trends
CITIC Securities has released a research report indicating a significant reassessment of rare earth values is currently underway. The report forecasts that the average price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide will reach 731,000 yuan per ton in the first half of 2026, marking a 73.6% year-on-year increase. On the supply side, both imports and recycling of rare earths have seen notable reductions. Furthermore, the enforcement of domestic rare earth management policies has intensified, leading to a persistently tight supply within the industry. Concurrently, demand is being driven by the increasing production of new energy vehicles and robots, coupled with robust growth in export orders. The impending mass production of Tesla's robots is also expected to contribute to sustained demand for rare earths. Considering these supply and demand dynamics, a widening global rare earth supply-demand gap is anticipated from 2026 onwards. This deficit is expected to provide long-term support for rare earth prices, leading CITIC Securities to recommend strategic allocation within the rare earth industry chain.
The report highlights a confluence of factors—tightening supply, increasing demand from emerging technologies like EVs and robotics, and stricter regulatory oversight—that are projected to drive up rare earth prices. This suggests a potential shift in market dynamics where strategic resource control and technological adoption become increasingly intertwined. Investors and industry stakeholders may need to consider the long-term implications of these supply chain dependencies and the geopolitical considerations surrounding critical mineral resources. The analysis points to a future where demand for rare earths, essential for advanced manufacturing and green technologies, will likely outpace readily available supply, necessitating innovation in extraction, recycling, and alternative material development.
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