Datafolha Poll: Marina Silva and Simone Tebet Lead São Paulo Senate Race
A new Datafolha poll reveals Marina Silva (PSB) and Simone Tebet (MDB) are leading the race for the two São Paulo Senate seats, securing 18% and 16% of voter intentions, respectively. The survey, conducted between Wednesday, August 1st, and Friday, August 3rd, involved 1,608 interviews across 71 municipalities in São Paulo state, targeting individuals aged 16 and older. The margin of error for the total sample is two percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. This research is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number SP-01703/2026. Ricardo Salles (Novo) is the highest-ranking right-wing candidate at 13%, followed by André do Prado (PL) with 11% and Guilherme Derrite (PP) with 10%. Paulinho da Força (Solidariedade) garnered 8% of intentions, while 7% of respondents were undecided and 17% indicated blank, null, or no vote. Notably, the poll suggests progressive candidates are performing better than their right-wing counterparts. In the 2026 elections, voters will select two senators per state as two-thirds of the Senate seats are up for renewal. Previous polls presented different scenarios, including former minister Fernando Haddad (PT) and Geraldo Alckmin, who is now a vice-presidential candidate.
This poll indicates a dynamic political landscape for the São Paulo Senate race, with leading progressive candidates outperforming their right-wing counterparts. The upcoming election, which renews two-thirds of the Senate, presents an opportunity for significant shifts in representation. Understanding voter motivations, particularly the perceived strength of progressive versus right-wing platforms, will be crucial for candidates. The influence of potential endorsements, including from figures associated with former President Jair Bolsonaro, could still impact the outcome for right-wing candidates. As the election cycle progresses, shifts in voter sentiment and strategic alliances will likely shape the final results, highlighting the fluid nature of electoral politics.
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