Dengue Outbreak Risk High in August-September, Warns Mosquito Researcher
Professor Dr. Kabirul Bashar, an entomologist at Jahangirnagar University with 26 years of mosquito research experience, warns of a potential surge in dengue cases in August and September. He explains that dengue, once Dhaka-centric, has become a year-round threat across Bangladesh due to the Aedes mosquito's adaptability and the movement of people and insects between regions. Dr. Bashar's research team uses a forecasting model based on Aedes mosquito density, patient numbers, rainfall, temperature, and humidity, which has proven accurate in the past. This year, the model predicts a severe dengue situation in August and September if control measures are not intensified. High-risk districts include several in the Barisal division (Barisal, Borguna, Pirojpur, Patuakhali), along with Bagerhat, Khulna, Chittagong, Cox's Bazar, Chandpur, Cumilla, Dhaka, Gazipur, Mymensingh, Narsingdi, Manikganj, Munshiganj, and Narayanganj. While Dhaka might see a slightly lower infection rate compared to previous years, the focus must shift to preparing for increased cases in districts outside the capital.
The expert highlights a critical gap in current mosquito control strategies, noting that efforts primarily target Culex mosquitoes breeding in drains and stagnant water, while neglecting Aedes mosquitoes, which breed in cleaner water sources within homes and urban infrastructure like basements and parking lots. This misdirected approach, coupled with the ineffective and potentially harmful practice of fogging, contributes to the persistent dengue problem. The analysis suggests a need for a paradigm shift towards community-driven Aedes breeding site elimination and targeted larvicide application, alongside enhanced preparedness in healthcare facilities. Future public health interventions must integrate ecological understanding of mosquito behavior and prioritize evidence-based, environmentally sound control methods to mitigate risks and allocate resources effectively.
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