Embraer forecasts 8,500 commercial aircraft demand by 2045, valuing market at $650 billion

Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer has released its 2026 Market Outlook, projecting global demand for commercial aircraft with up to 150 seats over the next 20 years. The report anticipates approximately 8,500 new aircraft orders by 2045, representing a market value of around $650 billion. This forecast was published just before the Farnborough Air Show, a major event in the aviation industry. Embraer expects global passenger traffic to grow by an average of 3.7% annually until 2045. China is projected to lead expansion with 5.2% annual growth, followed by the Middle East (4.6%), Africa (4.4%), Latin America and the Caribbean (4.3%), Asia-Pacific (4.1%), Europe (2.7%), and North America (2%).

The report highlights that shifts in global production chains, the growth of industrial hubs, and increased tourism are expected to drive demand for high-frequency regional flights, favoring aircraft with fewer than 150 seats. North America is forecast to receive the largest share of deliveries, with 2,670 aircraft (31% of global demand). Other regions include Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (1,870 aircraft), China (1,470), Asia-Pacific (1,050), Latin America (740), Africa (370), and the Middle East (330). The study also includes projections for freighters under 40 tons and analyzes the conversion of passenger planes for cargo use.