Fujimorismo's Return: Disruptive Change or Gradual Reform?
The return of Fujimorismo to Peru's executive branch prompts a debate on the nature of political and economic change, drawing parallels to a historical controversy between Edmund Burke and Thomas Paine. Paine advocated for absolute, revolutionary change, while Burke favored gradual reforms, warning that radical shifts could lead back to the original state. The French Revolution's trajectory, from abolishing autocracy to Jacobin radicalism and ultimately Napoleonic rule, illustrates Burke's cautionary perspective. Similarly, Alberto Fujimori's presidency initially promised a different economic approach than his rival Mario Vargas Llosa but quickly implemented 'shock therapy' measures to combat hyperinflation and state waste, shifting from a Burkean stance to Paine-like actions.
In the current context, while drastic measures of the 1990s may not be required, urgent reforms are necessary. Peru can no longer rely solely on commodity booms to maintain artificially low deficits. Key challenges include reducing the size of the state, eliminating redundant functions, and cutting the public workforce, which numbered nearly 1.6 million in 2024. This must be done without yielding to demands from special interest groups with unjustified benefits. Furthermore, reforms are needed to improve how subnational governments receive and manage central funds, preventing waste and corruption. Many citizens outside Lima feel neglected by the state, perceiving a disconnect with the capital's elites and accusing them of centralism.
Keiko Fujimori's current political discourse positions her as a moderate, reformist right-wing figure aiming to preserve the economic model. While this approach may appeal to voters hesitant about radical change during campaigns, her government's strategy must evolve. Effective governance is often remembered for breaking with a stagnant status quo. Fujimori's challenge is to be both disruptive and effective while maintaining a pro-free market stance. The question remains whether she will adopt a strategy similar to her father's: campaigning with a social democratic economic appeal but governing by reducing state size and reversing concerning trends. Time will reveal her chosen path.
The debate between gradual reform and disruptive change, exemplified by the historical figures of Burke and Paine and applied to contemporary Peruvian politics, highlights a persistent tension in governance. When political actors adopt populist or broad-appeal campaign strategies that diverge from their subsequent policy implementations, it can create public trust deficits. The analysis suggests that while maintaining economic stability is crucial, addressing regional disparities and state inefficiency requires structural reforms that may be perceived as radical by some entrenched interests. The challenge for any administration, particularly one returning to power under a familiar banner, is to balance the need for decisive action with the potential for public backlash, navigating the complex interplay of market dynamics, social expectations, and governance effectiveness over the next decade.
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