Goiás Poll: Caiado Leads Presidential Intentions, Followed by Bolsonaro and Lula
A recent Quaest poll conducted in Goiás, Brazil, reveals the voting intentions for the first round of the presidential election. Governor Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) leads with 33% of voter intentions. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) follows with 27%, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) is in third place with 23%. Other candidates, including Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, Samara Martins, Cabo Daciolo, Edmilson Costa, and Leonardo Avalanche, each garnered 1% or less. A significant 9% of voters remain undecided, with 4% indicating they would cast a blank or null vote. The poll also explored four potential second-round scenarios. In a hypothetical matchup between Caiado and Lula, Caiado secures 67% of the vote compared to Lula's 23%. Against Flávio Bolsonaro, Caiado also leads, though the poll does not present this specific scenario. However, a Flávio Bolsonaro versus Lula contest shows Bolsonaro with 47% to Lula's 35%. In a potential race between Lula and Renan Santos, Lula garners 34% against Santos's 31%. A Romeu Zema versus Lula scenario shows Zema with 35% and Lula with 33%. The survey, commissioned by Genial Investimentos, interviewed 1,104 eligible voters aged 16 and above between July 24 and 28. It has a margin of error of 3 percentage points and a 95% confidence level, registered with the electoral justice system under number BR-08063/2026. Regarding President Lula's approval in Goiás, 35% approve of his government, while 59% disapprove. His administration's evaluation is seen as positive by 27% and negative by 47%. Notably, 69% of respondents believe Lula does not deserve a new term.
This poll from Goiás indicates a complex political landscape where incumbent presidential candidates face varying levels of support and opposition. The data suggests a fragmented voter base, with a notable percentage of undecided voters and a significant disapproval rating for the current federal administration within the state. The scenarios presented for potential second-round matchups highlight the strategic importance of voter mobilization and the potential for shifts in support depending on the final candidate pairings. Analyzing these results through a forward-looking lens, candidates will need to address regional concerns and perceptions of federal governance to build broader coalitions, especially in states where national approval ratings are low. The interplay between state-level leadership and national political aspirations will be a key dynamic to monitor as electoral cycles progress.
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