India-Pakistan Relations: Escalating Tensions and the Need for Dialogue
For the past decade, India's BJP government has maintained a policy of complete disengagement with Pakistan, halting even people-to-people and sporting ties. This period has seen three significant kinetic aggressions by India against Pakistan in September 2016, February 2019, and May 2025. As South Asia experiences growing estrangement, global geopolitics have shifted, with major developments in West Asia, Europe, and East Asia, including a US-Iran war settlement and a US-China agreement on strategic stability. Bilateral ties between India and Pakistan have historically been strained by mutual mistrust, the unresolved Jammu and Kashmir dispute, India's alleged use of terrorism, and its pursuit of regional dominance. Most recently, India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in April 2025 has further deteriorated relations, with the Court of Arbitration deeming the move illegal. India claims cross-border terrorism as justification, but the author suggests it aims to expedite projects on rivers allocated to Pakistan and force renegotiation. Pakistan views any disruption to these waters as an act of war, given their critical importance to millions. The ongoing conflict below a nuclear overhang necessitates crisis de-escalation mechanisms, especially as both nations possess advanced weaponry like missiles and armed drones, creating a risk of rapid escalation. While the Director-General of Military Operations (DGMO) telephonic call is the sole communication channel, establishing additional avenues, such as regular contact between National Security Advisers and the return of High Commissioners, is crucial. Dedicated backchannels, similar to one that proposed a four-point Kashmir formula in 2007, could also be beneficial, particularly for water-sharing issues. Beyond crisis management, confidence-building measures like resuming pilgrimages, medical treatment, and family reunions are suggested. Cooperation on climate vulnerability presents another opportunity. India's potential re-engagement with the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) project, as well as reviving SAARC, could foster cooperation, though India's perception of SAARC as a platform for smaller states to counterbalance it remains a hurdle. Pakistan, while keeping dialogue open, must prepare for potential Indian misadventures and focus on its economic security through good governance and connectivity projects.
The current breakdown in India-Pakistan relations, marked by kinetic aggressions and the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, highlights systemic governance challenges and the persistent influence of historical grievances. The author's emphasis on crisis management and backchannel communication underscores the critical need for robust de-escalation mechanisms in a region with nuclear capabilities and advanced autonomous weapons. The suspension of the IWT, framed by India as a response to terrorism but perceived by Pakistan as an existential threat, reveals a dangerous interplay between national security narratives and resource management. This situation presents a stark example of how unresolved territorial disputes and strategic mistrust can impede cooperation on shared challenges like water security and climate change. Looking ahead, the region's geopolitical landscape, influenced by major power competition and evolving energy dynamics, necessitates a strategic re-evaluation of bilateral engagement. Without dedicated communication channels and a willingness to address core disputes, the risk of miscalculation and escalation remains a significant threat to regional stability and the well-being of millions.
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