Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied in São Paulo First-Round Presidential Poll
A new Datafolha poll reveals a statistical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) among voters in the state of São Paulo for the first round of presidential elections. Both candidates garnered 35% support in a simulated first-round vote. In a potential second-round matchup, the candidates remain technically tied, with Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula 46% to 43%. The survey, commissioned by the newspaper "Folha de S.Paulo," interviewed 1,608 São Paulo voters between July 1st and 3rd, carrying a margin of error of 2 percentage points. The poll is registered with the TSE under numbers SP-01703/2026 and BR-06481/2026. Other candidates in the first-round simulation received significantly lower support, including Ronaldo Caiado (3%), Renan Santos (3%), and Romeu Zema (3%). In second-round scenarios, Lula also faced potential ties with Ronaldo Caiado (43% to 42%) and Romeu Zema (41% to 44%). Regarding rejection rates, President Lula had a 51% rejection, while Flávio Bolsonaro stood at 43%.
This poll data from São Paulo indicates a highly competitive political landscape, suggesting that voter sentiment is closely divided between the incumbent president and a prominent opposition figure. The close margins in both first and second-round simulations highlight the importance of undecided voters and the potential for shifts in public opinion. Future campaign strategies will likely focus on mobilizing core bases and persuading a significant bloc of undecided or rejective voters. The analysis of rejection rates further underscores the polarization and challenges faced by candidates in securing broad appeal beyond their established supporters.
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