Lula Leads Flávio Bolsonaro by 8 Points in Simulated Presidential Runoff, Poll Shows
A new Quaest poll indicates President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holds an eight-percentage-point lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in a simulated second-round presidential election. Lula garnered 45% of voter intentions, compared to 37% for Bolsonaro. This represents a slight increase for Lula from previous months, who held 44% in June and 42% in May, while Bolsonaro's support has seen a slight decline from 38% in June and 41% in May. The poll suggests Lula would win in all four simulated second-round scenarios presented, with the narrowest margin against Flávio Bolsonaro and the largest against Renan Santos, by twelve percentage points. The research also captured voter sentiment on a first-round ballot, showing Lula leading with 40% and Bolsonaro with 28%. The survey of 2,004 voters, conducted between July 10-13 with a 2% margin of error, is the first to incorporate the impact of recent political events, including a Federal Police operation involving Senator Jaques Wagner and a public dispute involving Michelle Bolsonaro and Flávio Bolsonaro. Additionally, the poll found that 48% of respondents approve of Lula's government, while 47% disapprove, marking the first time since December 2024 that approval has numerically surpassed disapproval. However, a majority of respondents (51%) believe Lula should not receive a new term.
This poll data from Quaest highlights shifting voter preferences in Brazil's political landscape, particularly in potential second-round matchups. The simulated runoff scenarios suggest a competitive election, with President Lula da Silva showing a consistent lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, though the margin has fluctuated over recent months. Factors such as internal campaign dynamics, including public disagreements within prominent political families, appear to be influencing voter perception and potentially impacting candidate support bases. The survey also indicates a near even split in the approval and disapproval of the current government, alongside a majority sentiment against a new presidential term for Lula. These findings underscore the complex interplay of candidate performance, public perception, and external events in shaping electoral outcomes, suggesting that future campaign strategies will need to address voter concerns regarding governance and leadership continuity.
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