Military might insufficient for political goals in Middle East: Ex-Envoy
Former Pakistani Ambassador to Iran, Asif Ali Khan Durrani, stated that recent Iran-US conflict highlights that military superiority no longer guarantees political success. Speaking at a seminar by the Pakistan Institute of International Affairs (PIIA) on Saturday, July 26th, 2026, he noted that despite the US's global military dominance and Israel's regional advantage, neither could force Iran to alter its strategic stance. Durrani, who also served as ambassador to the UAE and Special Representative to Afghanistan, presented a paper on changing Middle Eastern power dynamics. He observed that Iran, while resilient, has suffered significant economic and human costs, underscoring that modern wars can destroy infrastructure but rarely dismantle political systems or resolve deep-seated disputes. This reality, he argued, makes diplomacy essential, not optional. The renewed hostilities have strained the Islamabad Memorandum, but its role in halting escalation after military confrontation should not be dismissed. The current challenge is to convert the fragile ceasefire into a sustainable political process addressing root causes of conflict. Durrani outlined four potential future scenarios: renewed escalation through various means, a prolonged 'cold peace' with deterrence and intermittent crises, a comprehensive political settlement on key issues, or the gradual development of an inclusive regional security architecture. He believes the latter, involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf states, Iraq, Turkiye, Egypt, and other regional actors, supported rather than dominated by external powers, offers the most promising path. Pakistan, with its constructive relations across various global powers, can play a vital role in facilitating dialogue and advocating for regional cooperation. He concluded that the Iran-US war is a defining moment, urging a focus on building peace through mutual respect and collective security rather than winning future wars. Other speakers, including retired Lt Col Dr Muhammad Ali Ehsan and Dr Naeem Ahmed, discussed the illusion of a new Middle East and the impact on the global order, with some scholars suggesting the conflict could be a prelude to a larger world war.
The analysis presented by former Ambassador Durrani suggests a critical shift in international relations where military power is increasingly decoupled from political outcomes, particularly in the Middle East. This perspective challenges traditional notions of deterrence and power projection, indicating that non-state actors and resilient political systems can absorb significant military pressure without yielding strategic objectives. The emphasis on diplomacy and the proposed inclusive regional security architecture highlight a potential move towards multilateralism and de-escalation, driven by the unsustainable costs of prolonged conflict. The scenarios presented offer a framework for understanding the region's complex future, with the aspiration for a durable peace hinging on comprehensive political settlements and cooperative security mechanisms. The analysis implicitly points to the limitations of unilateral military action and the growing importance of diplomatic engagement in a multipolar world where economic interdependencies and shared security concerns necessitate collaborative solutions.
AI-generated to prompt reflection — not editorial opinion, not advice, not a statement of fact. How this works.