Minas Gerais Poll: Lula and Bolsonaro Tied, Zema Trails
A new Quaest poll released on Tuesday, July 28, reveals a tight race for the presidency in Minas Gerais, a crucial state. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) leads with 30% of voter intentions, narrowly ahead of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) with 29%. However, within the poll's 3-percentage-point margin of error, the two candidates are statistically tied. Romeu Zema (Novo) follows with 12% support, while Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) garners 4%. Other candidates, including Renan Santos (Missão), Cabo Daciolo (Mobiliza), Augusto Cury (Avante), and Samara Martins (UP), each received 2% or less. A significant 11% of voters remain undecided, and 9% indicated they would cast a blank or null vote.
The survey also explored four potential second-round scenarios. In a head-to-head with Bolsonaro, Lula would receive 38% to Bolsonaro's 35%. Against Romeu Zema, Lula would trail 37% to 39%. Facing Ronaldo Caiado, Lula would lead 38% to 30%. In a matchup with Renan Santos, Lula would secure 39% compared to Santos' 24%. The poll, commissioned by Genial Investimentos, surveyed 1,482 individuals aged 16 and above between July 22 and 26, with a 95% confidence level. Separately, the poll assessed the approval of Lula's federal government in Minas Gerais, with 42% approving and 51% disapproving, showing a slight decrease in approval and disapproval from April. When asked if Lula deserves a new term, 60% said no, while 36% said yes.
This poll highlights the highly competitive nature of the upcoming presidential election in Brazil, particularly within the pivotal state of Minas Gerais. The near-tie between the leading candidates, Lula and Bolsonaro, underscores the electorate's polarization and the significant undecided bloc, which could sway the election's outcome. The data suggests that while Lula holds a slight numerical advantage in a direct first-round matchup, his performance in simulated second-round contests varies depending on the opponent, indicating potential vulnerabilities. The declining approval ratings for the current federal government in Minas Gerais, despite a narrow lead in the first round, may reflect voter concerns about economic conditions or policy effectiveness. As the election approaches, candidates will likely focus on mobilizing their base and appealing to undecided voters, while also navigating the complex dynamics of regional support and national sentiment.
AI-generated to prompt reflection — not editorial opinion, not advice, not a statement of fact. How this works.