Minas Gerais Senate Race: Poll Shows Marília Campos and Aécio Neves Leading
A new Quaest poll released on Tuesday, July 28, indicates the current standings for the two Senate seats available in Minas Gerais for the upcoming October elections. The survey presents four different scenarios based on voter responses to presented candidate names. In these scenarios, former Contagem mayor Marília Campos (PT) and federal deputy Aécio Neves (PSDB) consistently appear at the forefront. However, Neves has not yet officially declared his candidacy.
Across the four scenarios, Marília Campos's support ranges from 18% to 20%, while Aécio Neves's support is between 16% and 16%. Other candidates like Carlos Viana (PSD) and Marcelo Aro (PP) also show notable percentages, generally between 10% and 12%. The poll, commissioned by Genial Investimentos, surveyed 1,482 voters aged 16 and over from July 22 to 26, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points and a 95% confidence level. It is registered with the electoral court under number MG-034/90/2026.
The survey also explored candidate recognition and rejection. Aécio Neves leads in recognition, with 37% stating they know him and would vote for him, followed by Marília Campos at 25%. Conversely, Neves also has the highest rejection rate, with 52% knowing him and stating they would not vote for him. Marília Campos has a 19% rejection rate among those who know her. A significant majority of voters, 64%, indicated their vote for senator could still change, a slight increase from April's 62%.
This poll provides a snapshot of voter sentiment in Minas Gerais for the upcoming Senate elections, highlighting the current frontrunners, Marília Campos and Aécio Neves. The data reveals a dynamic electoral landscape where a substantial portion of voters (64%) remain undecided or open to changing their choice, suggesting that campaign strategies and external events could significantly influence outcomes. Notably, Aécio Neves, despite leading in some recognition metrics, also faces considerable rejection, indicating a polarized perception among the electorate. The high percentage of undecided voters and the potential for vote shifts underscore the importance of sustained engagement and effective messaging for all candidates in the period leading up to the election. Future polls will be crucial to track shifts in voter preference as the election approaches and campaigns intensify.
AI-generated to prompt reflection — not editorial opinion, not advice, not a statement of fact. How this works.