New Poll Shows Shifting Dynamics in Espírito Santo Gubernatorial Race
A new Quaest poll released on Thursday, July 16th, reveals the current state of the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race, presenting four distinct first-round scenarios. Ricardo Ferraço of MDB consistently leads in all scenarios, with his support increasing from 32% in April to 37% in the latest poll for Scenario 1. Lorenzo Pazolini of Republicans and Helder Salomão of PT show modest gains across different scenarios, while Magno Malta of PL and Paulo Hartung of PSD see fluctuating support. The percentage of undecided voters has decreased from 18% in April to 14% in the current poll, with a similar drop in those who would vote blank, null, or not vote. A significant portion of voters, 53%, indicated their choice for governor could still change, a decrease from 60% in April, while 46% consider their decision final. The survey, commissioned by TV Gazeta, interviewed 804 voters aged 16 and over between July 10th and 13th, with a margin of error of three percentage points and a 95% confidence level. The poll is registered with the Electoral Justice under protocol ES-07211/2026. The research also includes six second-round simulations, where Ferraço generally maintains a lead against his potential opponents. Rejection indices show Magno Malta with the highest disapproval rating at 55%, followed by Paulo Hartung (35%), Helder Salomão (34%), Ricardo Ferraço (31%), and Lorenzo Pazolini with the lowest at 21%.
This poll data illustrates the fluidity of voter sentiment in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race, with incumbent candidate Ricardo Ferraço showing an upward trend. The decline in undecided voters suggests a potential crystallization of preferences, though a significant portion still indicates openness to change. The varying performance across different candidate pairings highlights the strategic importance of coalition building and candidate selection for future electoral rounds. As the election approaches, understanding the drivers behind voter shifts and the impact of negative campaigning, as indicated by rejection rates, will be crucial for all campaigns navigating the evolving political landscape.
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