Over 94 Million Europeans to Endure Temperatures Above 35°C
More than 350 million people across Europe, excluding Turkey, are expected to experience maximum temperatures exceeding 30°C, representing nearly two-thirds of the continent's population. This projection, based on data from the German meteorological service and the Joint Research Centre's 2025 population projections, aligns with findings from the Austrian NGO Klimadashboard. Within the European Union, upwards of 90 million individuals are anticipated to face temperatures above 35°C, with France and Spain being particularly affected. France is projected to have 50 million people in continental France experiencing these extreme temperatures, while over 20 million in Spain will be impacted. Nearly all residents of continental France are expected to feel heat above 30°C today, and in Spain, 38 million people will be affected. Other countries significantly impacted include Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Germany, and Hungary. The analysis combined weather forecasts from the Deutscher Wetterdienst with population density data, counting residents in areas predicted to reach 30°C or 35°C at any point during the day. Klimadashboard noted that the model's 6.5-kilometer resolution may lead to an underestimation of affected individuals in densely populated urban areas due to the urban heat island effect.
This analysis highlights the significant human exposure to extreme heat across Europe, driven by meteorological forecasts and population data. The methodology, while robust in its scale, acknowledges potential underestimation in urban centers, suggesting that the true impact of heatwaves on densely populated areas might be even greater. As climate change intensifies, understanding these exposure patterns is critical for public health infrastructure and urban planning. Future preparedness will require more granular data, especially concerning urban heat island effects, to effectively mitigate risks for vulnerable populations and ensure resilient urban environments in the face of escalating thermal stress.
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