Paraná Senate Race: Dias and Curi Lead in New Quaest Poll
A recent Quaest poll released on Monday, July 27th, reveals the current standings for the two Senate seats up for grabs in Paraná during the October elections. The survey, commissioned by Genial Investimentos, interviewed 1,104 individuals aged 16 and above between July 21st and 25th, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points and a 95% confidence level. The poll, registered under number PR-04818/2026, indicates that Álvaro Dias (MDB) and Alexandre Curi (Republicanos) are leading in three different simulated scenarios. In the first scenario, Dias garners 20% of the vote, followed by Curi at 10%, with Deltan Dallagnol (Novo), Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), and Filipe Barros (PL) also polling at 10%, 10%, and 8% respectively. The second scenario shows Dias at 20% and Curi at 11%, with Hoffmann at 10% and Barros at 10%. The third scenario focuses on Curi leading with 14%, followed by Dallagnol and Barros at 12% each, and Hoffmann at 11%. Notably, 68% of respondents indicated their vote choice could still change, while 32% consider their decision final. Regarding candidate recognition, Álvaro Dias is the most known at 52%, followed by Alexandre Curi (25%) and Gleisi Hoffmann (22%). Hoffmann also faces the highest rejection rate at 60%, with Dr. Rosinha (PT) at 35% and Dias at 34%.
This poll provides a snapshot of voter sentiment in Paraná for the upcoming Senate elections, highlighting the current frontrunners and the significant portion of undecided or potentially wavering voters. The data suggests that candidate recognition plays a substantial role, with the leading candidates also being the most known. However, high recognition does not necessarily equate to universal support, as evidenced by the rejection rates for some leading figures. The substantial percentage of voters whose decisions are not yet final indicates a dynamic race where campaign strategies and external factors could significantly shift the outcome. Understanding the drivers behind voter indecision and rejection will be crucial for candidates aiming to secure victory, especially in a political landscape where voter choices are increasingly fluid and influenced by evolving narratives.
AI-generated to prompt reflection — not editorial opinion, not advice, not a statement of fact. How this works.