Pernambuco Governor Race: Lyra Leads Campos by 4 Points in Datafolha Poll
A new Datafolha poll released on Friday, July 31st, indicates that incumbent Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) holds a 49% to 45% lead over former Recife Mayor João Campos (PSB) in the second round of the Pernambuco gubernatorial election. Four percent of voters indicated a blank, null, or no vote, while 2% were undecided. The poll, which has a margin of error of three percentage points, surveyed 1,022 voters between July 28th and 30th with a 95% confidence level. This survey was commissioned by TV Tribuna and is registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number PE-04519/2026.
In the first round of the 2026 elections, Lyra secured 48% of the vote compared to Campos's 42%. Other candidates, Ivan Moraes (PSOL) and Camila Falcão (UP), each received 1%, with 5% voting blank or null and 2% undecided. Regarding voter rejection, João Campos faced a 30% rejection rate, closely followed by Raquel Lyra at 29%. Ivan Moraes had 22% rejection, Camila Falcão 20%, and Renan Hallais (Missão) 19%. Three percent rejected all candidates, while 2% stated they would vote for anyone and 7% were unsure.
Governor Lyra's administration received a positive evaluation, with 49% of respondents deeming her government ' ótima ou boa' (excellent or good), an increase from 45% in April. 'Regular' (fair) evaluations stood at 29%, down from 37%, and 'ruim ou péssima' (bad or terrible) evaluations were at 20%, up from 16%. Overall approval for Lyra's government was 66%, with 30% disapproving and 4% undecided. The poll also projected scenarios for the Senate race, showing Marília Arraes (PDT) leading with 18% in both simulations, followed by Humberto Costa (PT) at 15% and 14% respectively.
This poll data presents a close electoral contest for the Pernambuco governorship, with incumbent Raquel Lyra holding a narrow lead over challenger João Campos. The slight increase in Lyra's 'ótima ou boa' government evaluation and overall approval ratings suggest a stable, albeit not overwhelmingly strong, base of support. Campos's higher rejection rate, despite a competitive showing in the first round, indicates potential challenges in converting undecided voters or winning over those dissatisfied with Lyra's administration. The significant percentage of blank/null/undecided votes in the second-round projection highlights the critical role of voter mobilization and persuasion in the final weeks of the campaign. As the election approaches, both campaigns will likely focus on consolidating their core support and targeting the remaining undecided electorate, while also navigating the dynamics of voter rejection and approval ratings for the incumbent.
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