Poll Shows Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Tied in Espírito Santo First Round
A new poll by Quaest reveals a statistical tie between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in the first round of presidential elections among voters in the state of Espírito Santo. Both candidates received 30% of the vote intention. The survey, commissioned by Rede Gazeta, interviewed 804 voters in Espírito Santo between July 10 and 13, with a margin of error of three percentage points. In a hypothetical second-round matchup between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, the poll indicates Flávio Bolsonaro would lead with 42% of the vote compared to Lula's 36%. Undecided voters accounted for 7% in this second-round scenario, with 15% indicating blank, null, or no vote. Other candidates listed in the first round included Renan Santos (Missão) and Romeu Zema (Novo) with 3% each, Augusto Cury (Avante) and Ronaldo Caiado (PSD) with 2% each, and several others receiving 1% or less. A significant portion of voters, 14%, remained undecided in the first round, while 13% indicated they would cast a blank, null, or no vote. The poll has been registered with the Regional Electoral Court of Espírito Santo (TRE-ES) under protocol ES-07211/2026.
This poll data from Espírito Santo highlights the competitive nature of the Brazilian political landscape, indicating a close race between major candidates in a key state. The results suggest that voter sentiment is highly fluid, with a substantial percentage of undecided voters in both first and second-round scenarios. This presents an opportunity for campaigns to sway undecided voters through targeted messaging and policy proposals. The close margins underscore the importance of voter mobilization and the potential impact of demographic shifts or external events on electoral outcomes in the upcoming decade, particularly as digital campaigning and information dissemination continue to evolve.
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