Presidential Race: Lula Leads in Four States, Bolsonaro in One, Others Tied

Recent polls by Quaest conducted between July 27 and July 30 reveal the current landscape of the 2026 presidential race across ten Brazilian states. President Lula, seeking re-election, holds a first-round lead in Bahia (52%), Ceará, Pará (38%), and Pernambuco (55%). Flávio Bolsonaro is leading in Paraná with 42% of first-round intentions. In Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado is numerically ahead with 33%, while Romeu Zema leads in Minas Gerais with 12%. The race is technically tied between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Minas Gerais (30% vs. 29%), Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, and São Paulo. In most states surveyed, other candidates, including Caiado and Zema, received less than 3% of the vote, with undecided voters ranging from 8% in Pernambuco to 19% in Rio Grande do Sul. In second-round simulations, Lula generally maintains an advantage over Flávio Bolsonaro and other tested opponents across most states, though technical ties emerge in some scenarios. For example, in Minas Gerais, Lula leads Flávio 38% to 35% in a second-round simulation, a technical tie. In Paraná, Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 50% to 28%. The polls involved between 900 and 1,482 voters per state, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points and a 95% confidence level.