Rio de Janeiro Senate Race: Benedita da Silva and Marcelo Crivella Lead Polls
A recent poll by Quaest, released on Monday, July 27th, presents two scenarios for the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate elections. In both scenarios, former governor Benedita da Silva (PT) and federal deputy and former Rio mayor Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) emerge as the leading candidates. The survey was commissioned by Genial Investimentos and interviewed 1,200 voters in Rio de Janeiro between July 21st and 25th, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points and a 95% confidence level. The poll was registered with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number RJ-02671/2026.
In the first scenario, Benedita da Silva garnered 11% of voter intention, followed by Marcelo Crivella with 8%. Other candidates included Carlos Portinho (PL) at 4%, Márcio Canella (União) at 4%, Alessandro Molon (PSB) at 3%, Mônica Benício (PSOL) at 3%, Pedro Paulo (PSD) at 3%, and Waguinho (Republicanos) at 3%. A significant portion of voters, 22%, remained undecided, while 37% indicated they would vote blank, null, or not vote at all.
The second scenario showed a slight increase for the top contenders, with Benedita da Silva at 12% and Marcelo Crivella at 9%. Carlos Portinho, Mônica Benício, Pedro Paulo, and Waguinho each received 4%, while Marcos Dias (Podemos) and Sávio Neves (PSDB) had 1%. Indecision rose to 23%, and blank/null/non-voting intentions reached 38%. The poll also simulated the race excluding former governor Cláudio Castro, who is currently ineligible for eight years due to a TSE ruling for political and economic abuse in the 2022 elections. Márcio Canella, under investigation for ties to organized crime, and Alessandro Molon were also excluded in some simulations.
This poll offers an early snapshot of potential senatorial candidacies in Rio de Janeiro for 2026, highlighting the current frontrunners while acknowledging the substantial undecided vote and the impact of potential exclusions. The presence of candidates facing legal scrutiny or ineligibility underscores the dynamic and evolving nature of electoral landscapes. Future electoral outcomes will likely be shaped by ongoing legal processes, party realignments, and the ability of candidates to mobilize distinct voter segments amidst significant voter apathy or abstention. The high percentage of undecided and blank/null votes suggests a potential for significant shifts in voter preference as the election cycle progresses and candidates solidify their platforms and campaigns.
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