Rio Grande do Norte sees Brazil's highest rise in violent deaths in 2025
The Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Norte experienced the most significant increase in Intentional Violent Deaths (MVI) nationwide in 2025, according to the 20th Brazilian Public Security Yearbook. While Brazil as a whole saw an 8.2% reduction in MVIs, Rio Grande do Norte recorded a 19.6% surge. This rise was primarily driven by an increase in intentional homicides, which climbed from 655 cases in 2024 to 843 in 2025, pushing the rate from 24.4 to 29.1 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Despite this increase, the rate remains lower than levels observed between 2013 and 2023. The state also saw concerning rises in police lethality, rapes, and violent deaths among children and adolescents, alongside a decrease in public security investments.
Nationally, Brazil registered 40,775 MVIs in 2025, achieving its lowest historical rate of 19.1 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, two years ahead of its homicide reduction target. Rio Grande do Norte, however, moved in the opposite direction. The yearbook highlighted a stark 153.9% increase in violent deaths among children and adolescents (0-17 years) in the state, with cases rising from 24 in 2024 to 60 in 2025. This surge is attributed to escalating conflicts between criminal factions like Comando Vermelho (CV), Sindicato do Crime (SDC), and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC), particularly in the western region. Furthermore, homicides against women increased by 61.8%, reaching 73 cases in 2025, though only 26% were classified as feminicides, potentially indicating underreporting.
Adding to the security concerns, Rio Grande do Norte was among the few states to record an increase in rape cases, with 1,304 incidents in 2025. Concurrently, the state drastically reduced its public security spending by 21.8% in real terms, from R$ 2.37 billion in 2024 to R$ 1.77 billion in 2025. Despite these negative trends, the state did achieve the nation's largest reduction in cell phone theft and robbery, down 22.1%, and saw a significant 48.2% increase in firearm seizures. However, Natal remains among the top 20 Brazilian cities for cell phone-related crimes.
The data from Rio Grande do Norte presents a complex picture of public security, diverging significantly from national trends. While Brazil has made progress in reducing overall violent deaths, the state's increase, particularly among vulnerable groups like children and adolescents, suggests localized systemic failures. The reported decrease in public security investment alongside rising violence indicates a potential disconnect between resource allocation and public safety needs. The analysis of feminicide underreporting also points to challenges in accurate data collection and classification, potentially masking the true extent of gender-based violence. Understanding the interplay between organized crime, state investment, and the efficacy of law enforcement strategies will be crucial for addressing these trends over the next decade, especially as technological advancements may alter the landscape of both crime and security.
AI-generated to prompt reflection — not editorial opinion, not advice, not a statement of fact. How this works.