Russian Ships Likely Launched Drones Over Dutch Bases, Think Tank Reports
Drones observed flying over Dutch military bases, including Volkel and Eindhoven, in late 2025 were most likely launched from Russian ships, according to researchers at the British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The IISS analyzed 144 reports from 13 European countries dating back to August 2024, focusing on sightings of professional, military-looking drones measuring three to six meters wide. These drones flew at low altitudes, evaded radar detection, and disappeared quickly upon discovery, with their origins remaining unknown in all reported cases. The IISS suggests these drones originated from Russia's "shadow fleet" of tankers, which operate under different flags to circumvent oil sanctions. The report posits that these operations were likely orchestrated by the Kremlin as part of a broader unconventional warfare strategy in Europe, aiming to test NATO's air defense capabilities and observe national responses to such threats. While acknowledging that not every drone sighting is attributable to Russia or even a drone, the IISS highlights a consistent pattern across Europe that cannot be explained by hobbyist activities or misidentification. The report specifically identifies three vessels as potential launch platforms: the Cgas Leopard and Tranquil Sea, which were near the Dutch coast, and the Arctica, observed near Dunkirk, France, and also in proximity to drone sightings in Denmark and France. In the Netherlands, nine such incidents were reported between November and December 2025, including multiple sightings over Volkel Air Base, a location noted for its storage of American atomic bombs. On November 21, 2025, up to ten drones were observed over Volkel between 7 PM and 9 PM, with military personnel attempting unsuccessfully to shoot them down. The following evening, air traffic was halted at Eindhoven Air Base and Eindhoven Airport due to unidentified drone activity. Another drone was sighted near Volkel Air Base on the morning of December 7, prompting the launch of two F-35 fighter jets for interception.
This report details a pattern of sophisticated drone activity over sensitive European military sites, with a think tank attributing these incursions to Russian naval assets. The analysis suggests a strategic objective by Russia to probe NATO's air defense systems and gauge international reactions, utilizing commercial vessels as covert launch platforms. This approach highlights a potential escalation in hybrid warfare tactics, where civilian infrastructure is repurposed for military reconnaissance and testing. The IISS's findings underscore the challenge of attribution in modern conflict, particularly in contested maritime environments. Future geopolitical stability may depend on developing more robust international frameworks for monitoring and responding to such unconventional threats, balancing security imperatives with principles of freedom of navigation and avoiding unintended escalation. The observed tactics could indicate a broader trend of state actors leveraging deniable assets to challenge established security architectures.
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