Sudan's Civil War Fueled by International Support, Analyst States
Sudan's protracted civil war, now nearing its one-year mark, is significantly sustained by external involvement, according to Jan Pospisil, a Sudan Affairs Analyst at the Peace and Conflict Resolution Evidence Platform. While Pospisil clarifies that the conflict is not a proxy war in the strictest definition, he asserts that the war's continuation in its current form is dependent on international backing. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) appear determined to capture el-Obeid, a key strategic city. Despite the involvement of international players such as the UAE, which allegedly supplies arms to the RSF, and other nations like the US and Saudi Arabia, none seem to possess sufficient leverage to broker a ceasefire or a lasting peace agreement between the warring factions. This lack of decisive international pressure highlights the complex geopolitical dynamics enabling the conflict's persistence.
The assertion that Sudan's civil war persists due to international support, rather than being a direct proxy conflict, suggests a complex interplay of state and non-state interests. The alleged arms supply to the RSF by the UAE, alongside the limited leverage of major international actors like the US and Saudi Arabia, points to a diffusion of influence and potentially competing geopolitical objectives. This dynamic may create an environment where neither side feels compelled to negotiate seriously, as external resources sustain their capacity to wage war. Moving forward, understanding the specific incentives driving international involvement and the mechanisms through which these external resources are channeled will be crucial for developing effective strategies to de-escalate the conflict and foster sustainable peace in Sudan.
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