UN Weather Agency Predicts Rapid Intensification of Strong El Niño Event
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has announced that its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates a rapid evolution towards a strong El Niño event expected between July and September. This prediction is based on remarkable agreement among forecasting models, providing a high degree of confidence. Sea surface temperatures are anticipated to be above normal in the eastern equatorial Pacific (with an 80% probability), as well as in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Conversely, the North Atlantic is likely to experience temperatures at or below normal. The update also forecasts, with extremely high probability, above-average temperatures across most land areas outside the polar regions. Regarding precipitation, Europe is expected to see above-average rainfall in the south and below-average in the north, though the WMO notes lower forecast reliability for Europe compared to many other regions. Central and eastern equatorial Pacific regions are also likely to receive above-average rainfall, while parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent, and much of Australia may experience below-average rainfall. Equatorial Africa is projected to have above-average rainfall north of the Gulf of Guinea, contrasting with below-average rainfall in the Horn of Africa. Central America, the Caribbean, and northwestern South America are forecast to have drier-than-average conditions in some parts, while parts of the southwestern United States may experience wetter-than-average conditions. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated that the ongoing El Niño conditions are intensifying rapidly, increasing the likelihood of droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves on land and in marine environments globally. The WMO has initiated unprecedented mobilization of climate information services and early warning support to assist governments, humanitarian agencies, climate-sensitive sectors, and vulnerable communities in preparing for potential impacts. El Niño, characterized by warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts nine to twelve months. The previous El Niño event in 2023-2024 contributed to those years being the warmest on record, and while climate change is not proven to increase El Niño's frequency or intensity, it can amplify its impacts.
The WMO's forecast highlights the accelerating intensification of El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon with significant global implications. While the WMO emphasizes that climate change does not increase El Niño's frequency or intensity, it acknowledges that climate change can amplify its impacts. This suggests a complex interplay where anthropogenic warming may exacerbate the consequences of natural climate cycles, leading to more extreme weather events. The WMO's proactive mobilization of resources underscores the growing need for robust climate adaptation and early warning systems to mitigate risks to agriculture, health, and vulnerable populations. Future climate governance will need to address how to manage these amplified impacts, considering both natural variability and human-induced climate change, to build resilience in a warming world.
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